UFC 104: The Dragon versus Shogun

Machida’s karate against Rua’s Chute Boxe; this is war

Lyoto Machida had to fight a fellow Brazilian tough guy to prove he is not a boring fighter. Machida totally dominated and knocked out Thiago Silva in the very first round of UFC 94 with punches. Both Machida and Silva were undefeated at the time. It was Machida who gave Silva his first loss in 15 fights. It was Machida’s 14th straight victory.

Tomorrow, Machida will defend his UFC light-heavyweight title for the first time. Machida took the title from another unbeaten fighter, Rashad Evans. It was Machida’s most impressive win in his MMA career. It was a display of aggressive striking against one of the hardest punchers in MMA. Evans didn’t fall without a fight. At least he tried to make a fight of it, standing longer than he had any business staying on his feet while Machida was making his head a speedball.

Another Brazilian is matched up against Machida: Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, who has been inconsistent since jumping from Pride FC to the UFC after the buyout. Rua was once one of the most feared strikers in Pride, winning over such bangers as Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Alistair Overeem, and Ricardo Arona via knockout. Rua is not a bad grappler himself, submitting compatriot Renato “Babalu” Sobral by rear-naked choke, and the freakishly-strong Kevin Randleman by kneebar.

Rua can fight standing up or on the ground. But then, Machida is just as versatile, maybe even more so. Machida surprised many after he escaped from Tito Ortiz’s clamped-on triangle choke in the final round of their classic UFC 84 match, winning by unanimous decision.

Machida has been on a roll. Rua is just finding his feet. Machida is under pressure to keep his streak alive, while Rua needs to prove that he is still a force to reckon with in the 205-pound division’s top ranks. Rua also has the added pressure of proving that his win over Chuck Liddell in UFC 97 was no fluke, that he simply won over a veteran fighter who was too old and past his prime.

“It is funny and surprising to hear people say I beat an old man to get my title shot because these same people, before that fight, were saying I was going to get killed,” Rua said.

It is funny to think that Rua claims he is not under any pressure at all. “I think maybe that’s because I fight better when I am not under the pressure, and now all the pressure is off of me and on the champion,” he said.

The champion is always under some degree of pressure, but you can never say that the challenger is under less pressure. These are two warriors who make their living hurting other people in an arena. They know they can get hurt seriously or even die. Pressure is always there, no matter how cool they look or claim to be.

I wish I could say that the odds are even in this match-up. They are not. Sportsbook has it -500 for Machida and for +300 Rua. That is a rather accurate reading of this fight.

Speed:
Machida is one of the fastest strikers in MMA in any weight division. That is not to mention his strength. The good thing about Machida’s velocity is that it is not wasted on random quick strikes hoping he gets lucky. He is quick with his hands and with his feet. He only strikes with either punches or kicks when he sees an opening. While Rua is not as quick as Machida. Coming from a muay Thai background, being a Chute Boxe alumnus, Rua is more of an aggressive striker who will rush in with strong strikes with either hands or feet seeking to overwhelm his opponent. That works well with fighters who stand in front of Rua. With a smart opponent like Machida who uses a lot of feet movements for defense and attacks, Rua will have a hard time tagging him.
Advantage: Machida

Power:
You could say both are equally strong. In 15 fights, Machida has had only five knockout wins. In contrast, Rua, has a record of 15 KO wins in 21 bouts. But statistics can be deceptive. Rua’s aggression and reliance on power has earned him such a high knockout rate. Machida is a much more cautious striker. He sticks to his strategy of waiting before pouncing. But his knockout record is enviable. Of the five who suffered KO losses to Machida include such stellar names as Stephan Bonnar, Rich Franklin, Silva, and Evans, Machida’s power has been evident against such formidable opposition.
Advantage: Even

Stamina:
Machida has gone the distance eight times in 15 occasions, reaching the three-round limit nine times overall. He is no stranger to winning by decision. His relative youth, general good health, and splendid training would have allowed him to go two more rounds if needed be. Rua’s staying power, on the other hand, is suspect. Especially in the Mark Coleman fight, he was on the verge of gassing out against a much-older opponent, winning by KO with barely 24 seconds to go in the third and last round. That was a win for Rua, but then again, it was against another of the UFC’s legends, a veteran who had seen better days in the Octagon. Respect for Rua was still not quite unanimous.
Advantage: Machida

Guile:
Hands down, the edge goes to Machida. He is the least-hit fighter in UFC history if not all of MMA. His hybrid karate style, with lots of sidesteps, forward and backward motions that depend on an opponent’s movements have proven so confusing that his foes get frustrated, throwing caution to the wind, abandon their strategy and rush him just to land a blow or try to take him down. But Machida’s arsenal includes a black belt in Brazilian Jiujitsu, a background in both sumo and muay Thai. He is an extremely well-rounded martial artist. But that hasn’t made him overconfident. He will stick to his strategy of waiting out opponents, only committing to strike if he sees a reason to, decreasing the risk of being countered. You try to take down Machida and he will quickly step back, step to the side, or slide in to evade or throw a straight punch, a kick to the head or body, or even a knee (remember the strike to the abdomen that felled Ortiz?). Avoiding being hit while hitting one’s foe in the cage or ring is a very safe (some say boring) methodology. Machida has mastered this technique. You could say that Rua is the almost complete opposite. From Pride to UFC, Rua has fundamentally maintained an attacking style per the Chute Boxe school of fighting. Rua earned the nasty reputation of savaging downed opponents with stomps and diving punches. His foe might lie on the ground on his back, defending with up-kicks and kicks to the legs, but Rua will simply allow his foe to commit and miss then get back at him with a kick of his own or a strike with his fists or elbows. It is highly improbable that Rua will get Machida in this position.
Advantage: Machida

If the last two KO wins by Machida are a measure of how he will fight Rua, UFC 104’s light-heavyweight bout will not last five rounds. Or Machida will revert to his usual ways and stay safe from a distance, sniping at Rua, stretching the match to its full period, and try to eke out a decision. But is seems The Dragon has tasted blood and he likes the taste of copper on tongue. Fight fans hope that Shogun will accommodate The Dragon and it will be a fight to the death – so to speak. May the best man win, and may they still have their complete faculties after the fight is done.

Let’s get it on, indeed.