UFC 107: Penn versus Sanchez

Prodigious Ego Versus Nightmarish Attitude

BJ Penn once believed he was the world’s MMA pound-for-pound best fighter, the reason he went on a rather unsuccessful rampage taking on heavier fighters like current Ultimate Fighting Championship light-heavyweight king Lyoto Machida. Diego Sanchez once believed he was God’s gift to MMA after racking up a 12-0 win-loss record including his TKO win over Kenny Florian in the Ultimate Fighter 1 Middleweight final in 2005.

Ego is no problem with both Penn and Sanchez. Ironically, ego is also their huge problem. A puffed-up opinion of oneself can help someone overachieve, it could also teach one a very valuable albeit costly lesson – you get your ass kicked. It applies to both MMA and real life.

On Sunday, the world (the MMA world, at least) will get to see self-image and self-worth take a beating as Penn and Sanchez take on each other in five rounds for the UFC lightweight belt. Penn will be defending the title

After another embarrassing foray into the higher ranks with his total domination by UFC welterweight champ Georges St. Pierre, Penn gets back to the division where he is most comfortable to try to retain the lightweight title for the fourth time in almost two years.

Sanchez also had his humdrum days, losing twice in a row after a very impressive 17-0 W-L start. Penn is seeking validation and redemption, Sanchez is burdened with only one: validation.

Many don’t see this fight going the full five-round route. Both fiery fighters are fond of early stoppages, but if the first two rounds won’t go either fighter’s way, this could become a war of attrition that will favor Penn’s Brazilian Jiujitsu expertise and experience.

Sanchez has developed a reputation for impatience and great cardio, but don’t let Penn’s pudginess mislead you. The defending champ can go 10 rounds if needed, and he has somehow acquired a passion for training and discipline. He has the edge skills-wise and in athleticism, but Sanchez has a bit of youth on his side.

Betting odds have it -300 for Penn and +220 for Sanchez.

Penn many have a 5 on his L list, Sanchez just a 2. Sanchez, who is younger than Penn, actually has five more fights than Penn, but Penn has fought better fighters in his career, some he has beaten: Matt Hughes, Caol Uno, Takanori Gomi, Renzo Gracie, Jens Pulver, Sean Sherk, the latest being the late-blooming Kenny Florian.

Sanchez has had less distinguished foes, Nick Diaz, Karo Parisyan, Joe Stevenson, and Clay Guida, all who Sanchez defeated only by decision.

Knockout and submission wins are far more impressive than mere decisions. Both Penn and Sanchez may have earned reputations for fierceness (especially Sanchez who brings in a mean look into the Octagon, “a rental,” UFC color commentator Joe Rogan once said) but it is Penn who is more accomplished. Sanchez will need all his attitude and his renowned cardio plus physical skills, of course, to put up a good fight. Penn has been steamrolling the opposition in the lightweight division since his recent reign – his last four victories were either by submission or strikes. One could say that Sanchez is hungrier than Penn, having won no significant title except for the welterweight belt in King of the Cage five years ago.

To risk embarrassment, allow me a fearless forecast: Penn will win by either submission or knockout in less than five rounds, maybe the third. The only way Sanchez can triumph over Penn is to KO the latter early on or stay away from the Hawaiian for five rounds while sniping from outside with jabs and kicks. But it will be out of character for the Hispanic fighter to get on his bicycle. He has parlayed a well-nurtured reputation for aggression into a well-paying MMA career. Too late to stop now.

This is Penn’s fight to lose. On all avenues, Penn has the edge or matches close with Sanchez. Penn is one of the best pound-for-pound fighters (MMA or otherwise) in the last 10 years. He has somehow learned discipline and has gotten serious in his training and set his sights higher. He did go up in weight to take on another pound-for-pound luminary in St. Pierre.

No result is for certain in MMA, more so than in boxing or kickboxing. Penn looks to win, but watch out for Sanchez to pull a surprise.