UFC 123: Machida vs Rampage -- The Dragon versus The Ram

(Image from cdn.directv.com)

Ask any fighter of the difficulties of coming back after a loss and they’ll tell you the same thing: Of course, it’s difficult.

Levity is no match for severity, and Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson are in for some serious time in the Octagon hours from now. The loss that Machida underwent was more damaging than the one Jackson went through. Machida got knocked out in the first round in his defense of his UFC light-heavyweight title against Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, while Jackson merely lost a three-round decision to Rashad Evans. Both losses were humbling for the former holders of the division title and they must have rethought their strategies for today’s UFC 123 main event.

Machida was under a lot of pressure to prove that he deserved to hold on to the light-heavyweight belt after his unanimous-decision win in UFC 104. That pressure made Machida more aggressive than normal and he paid a steep price by losing his belt and his consciousness courtesy of a Shogun right overhand/hook to the temple. Rampage, on the other hand, got soft after his Hollywood stint and allowed Evans to dictate their UFC 114 tussle with good wrestling and constant takedowns.

You could say that Machida has fallen in love with the straight-on attack and knockouts this offensive system produced after successive KO wins over bangers Thiago Silva and Evans. Machida’s mistake was that he took Shogun’s strength and determination lightly after the ex-Pride middleweight Grand Prix king proved to be a disappointment in his first few fights since jumping over to the UFC. Machida admitted that he knew early on even before signing up with the UFC that he would have to take on Shogun. What he didn’t expect was to get knocked out by his fellow Brazilian.

Rampage has dismissed Machida as a “boring” fighter and he has maintained his opinion going into UFC 123. If Rampage really believes that, it could be his undoing. If by boring Rampage means that Machida relies too much on strategy and counter-striking to earn his victories, then Rampage is right. But those are the things that make Machida such a formidable fighter. He is not impatient (with the exception of the second fight with Shogun) and sticks to his bread-and-butter moves (with the exception of the second fight with Shogun). Like another pro-fighter of Asian heritage, Manny Pacquiao, Machida is quick on his feet and uses a lot of lateral movement in picking his shots. Pacquiao may use way more punches than Machida but they both produce just about the same amount of damage on their opponents: Pacquiao has knocked out 10 of his ring foes since adopting the stick-and-move approach to fighting starting with the Marco Antonio Barrera fight and starting his tutelage under the supreme trainer and strategist Freddie Roach.

Machida has always been an elusive fighter since joining MMA and statistics show that (with the exception of the two fights with Shogun).

If we limit our appraisal of Machida-Rampage I on their track record especially their past UFC performances, we can easily be tempted to give the fight to Machida who has only one loss on his record (two, arguing that he actually lost to Shogun twice) while Rampage has eight losses to 30 MMA wins. But styles will always make fights, and based on this dictum Rampage has a big chance of beating Machida.

The Japanese-Brazilian karateka is a very calculating fighter and can hardly be goaded to go toe to toe. His training dictates him to only go for a strike when his opponent leaves himself open especially after a missed strike of his own. But Rampage does not always leave himself open even after a strike misses or not. Rampage reacts to an attack or an opening. So if Machida comes in with a punch, kick or knee, he has to be very careful not to get caught in the process by a Rampage retaliatory strike.

Former middleweight UFC fighter Dan Henderson is superb at hooking or jabbing then stepping back or doing it in one motion, protecting himself from counterstrikes. Machida, on the other hand, looks for an opening, strikes, then pulls back, and only strikes again if his foe is vulnerable enough. The difficult part is knowing when to do this and a split second of hesitation or an opening could be all that Rampage needs to throw a punch or go for a shoot prior to some ground and pound.

Machida and Rampage need this win. A victory will not only put them back on the championship picture but better still, boost their confidence that they still matter and belong in the upper echelons of the light-heavyweight lineup.